Countervail Capital

A Blueprint for Cyclicals

A structural model can identify signal among noisy, mean-reverting cyclical firms

Jun 11 • 

Johann Colloredo-Mansfeld

May 2025

Pitch: PriceSmart, Inc. (NasdaqGS:PSMT)

PSMT equity holders get paid to own a put on the U.S. Dollar

May 27 • 

Johann Colloredo-Mansfeld

Pitch: Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS)

Simulations show rare but convex upside in the positive net liquidation of KSS’ substantial property portfolio

May 19 • 

Johann Colloredo-Mansfeld

Only Mostly Dead

Cash-flowing and asset-rich firms are more likely to engage in successful corporate turnarounds

May 6 • 

Johann Colloredo-Mansfeld

April 2025

The Great Immoderation

Re-shoring manufacturing could increase the volatility of US GDP growth and benefit value investing strategies

Apr 21 • 

Johann Colloredo-Mansfeld

Lobbying, Regulation, and Equity Returns

Theory, empirics, and anecdotal data show that lobbying dollars can create alpha opportunities

Apr 2 • 

Johann Colloredo-Mansfeld

1

March 2025

Playing Defense with Capital Allocation

Data shows that firms can mitigate market volatility by repurchasing shares

Mar 25 • 

Johann Colloredo-Mansfeld

Trade, Tariffs, and the USD Convenience Yield

Tariffs will likely keep interest rates high, increase the risk of the US Dollar, and potentially sponsor a global re-positioning away from US equity…

Mar 11 • 

Johann Colloredo-Mansfeld

January 2025

Navigating the AI Bubble

A slew of recent ETF launches hints at a cyclical peak for AI and underscores the riskiness of the trade

Jan 16 • 

Johann Colloredo-Mansfeld

Small Value Needs an Active Spin

Management teams of small and mid-cap companies play an increasingly prominent role in driving shareholder returns through capital allocation

Jan 9 • 

Johann Colloredo-Mansfeld